2014 Emmys Chances to Win by Vegas Odds

The house always wins. So when Vegas is offering odds on who will win the 2014 Emmys, it’s worth considering them before entering that office pool you never seem to win. To that end, and since not everyone qualifies as a professional handicapper, I’ve taken the odds from Bovada.lv, turned them in to probabilities, and then removed the house edge. The house edge in this case refers to the ~20% cushion the casino builds in to the odds to ensure profitability. Skewed odds on prop bets are probably part of the reason you came home after that Vegas trip empty handed (even though you told all of your friends you ‘broke even’).

By doing this quick transformation, the odds can now be given as the percent chance of winning, according to Vegas. So go ahead and make that bold prediction, just check these numbers to make sure it’s not, you know, too bold. And maybe, just maybe, this is the year you take down Rhonda from Accounts.

Outstanding Drama Series
Show Odds % Win
Breaking Bad 1/5 68.95
True Detective 7/1 10.34
Game of Thrones 8/1 9.19
House of Cards 9/1 8.27
Downton Abbey 50/1 1.62
Mad Men 50/1 1.62
Outstanding Comedy Series
Show Odds % Win
Orange Is The New Black 3/2 33.41
Modern Family 2/1 27.84
Veep 3/1 20.88
Louie 10/1 7.59
The Big Bang Theory 10/1 7.59
Silicon Valley 30/1 2.69
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Name Show Odds % Win
Matthew McConaughey True Detective 1/3 63.34
Bryan Cranston Breaking Bad 3/1 21.11
Kevin Spacey House of Cards 9/1 8.45
Jeff Daniels The Newsroom 30/1 2.72
Woody Harrelson True Detective 30/1 2.72
Jon Hamm Mad Men 30/1 1.66
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Name Show Odds % Win
Robin Wright House of Cards 4/5 46.21
Julianna Margulies The Good Wife 3/2 33.27
Claire Danes Homeland 11/1 6.93
Kerry Washington Scandal 13/1 5.94
Lizzy Caplan Masters of Sex 15/1 5.20
Michele Dockery Downton Abbey 33/1 2.45
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Name Show Odds % Win
Aaron Paul Breaking Bad 2/5 59.20
Peter Dinklage Game of Thrones 5/2 23.68
Josh Charles The Good Wife 9/1 8.29
Jon Voight Ray Donovan 15/1 5.18
Mandy Patinkin Homeland 40/1 2.02
Jim Carter Downton Abbey 50/1 1.63
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Name Show Odds % Win
Anna Gunn Breaking Bad ΒΌ 66.64
Christine Baranski The Good Wife 5/1 13.88
Joanne Froggatt Downton Abbey 10/1 7.57
Christina Hendricks Mad Men 20/1 3.97
Lena Headly Game of Thrones 20/1 3.97
Maggie Smith Downton Abbey 20/1 3.97
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Name Show Odds % Win
Jim Parsons The Big Bang Theory 5/9 53.24
Ricky Gervais Derek 3/1 20.71
Louie C.K. Louie 7/1 10.35
William H. Macy Shameless 7/1 10.35
Don Cheadle House of Lies 30/1 2.67
Matt LeBlanc Episodes 30/1 2.67
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Name Show Odds % Win
Julia Louis-Dreyfus Veep 1/10 75.35
Taylor Schilling Orange is The New Black 6/1 11.84
Amy Poehler Parks and Recreation 10/1 7.54
Edie Falco Nurse Jackie 40/1 2.02
Lena Dunham Girls 50/1 1.63
Melissa McCarthy Mike & Molly 50/1 1.63
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Name Show Odds % Win
Andre Braugher Brooklyn Nine-Nine 2/3 49.80
Tony Hale Veep 12/5 24.41
Jesse Tyler Ferguson Modern Family 5/1 13.83
Ty Burrell Modern Family 12/1 6.38
Fred Armisen Portlandia 20/1 3.95
Adam Driver Girls 50/1 1.63
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Name Show Odds % Win
Allison Janney Mom 1/8 73.94
Kate Mulgrew Orange is The New Black 7/2 18.48
Julie Bowen Modern Family 30/1 2.68
Anna Chlumsky Veep 50/1 1.63
Kate McKinnon Saturday Night Live 50/1 1.63
Mayim Bialik The Big Bang Theory 50/1 1.63

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